On September 24, 2025, a scientific expert seminar, The American Factor in Russia-India Relations in the Arctic, was held in Moscow. The event was conducted by The Arctic Century Non-Profit Organisation and the Arctic Centre of Petrozavodsk State University with the support of the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund and the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Leading Russian and foreign scholars and industry experts have participated in the event.
The Arctic Century finalises the results of the event and will continue to publish the key discussions that took place at the venue.
The Arctic Century’s presentation at the plenary session
The event focused on the prospects for developing a strategic partnership between Moscow and New Delhi in the high latitudes. A key conclusion of the discussion was the need to develop new, more flexible approaches to deepening bilateral cooperation in the Arctic, taking into account the sanctions imposed by Washington against Russia.
At the plenary session, Alexey Kupriyanov, Director of the Centre of the Indo-Pacific Region at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), noted the dynamic shift in India’s position in the High North: “Before 2022, the Indian expert and business community showed no active interest in a presence in the Arctic. The situation has changed, but another limiting factor has emerged—sanctions. Recently, however, India has demonstrated increasing interest in the active presence in the region.”
Acting Director of the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Natalya Tsvetkova, in her speech, characterised the U.S. approach to India as a policy of so-called strategic balancing: “The U.S. is trying to keep India within its orbit, preventing it from becoming closer to Russia and China. On the other hand, India is also managing risks, not wanting to lose the benefits of its relationship with the U.S.—access to technology and markets. The relationship is complex and balancing.”
Sergey Orlov, Deputy Executive Director of the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund, pointed out the dual role of the American factor: “Washington not only pressures us with sanctions, but also offers an alternative, actively trying to engage India in its vision of a ‘free and open Arctic.’”
“Sanctions have created a ‘glass ceiling,’ beyond which Russian-Indian economic cooperation in the region cannot yet rise. In response, Moscow and Delhi will seek pragmatism and new workarounds.”
The moderator of the first panel discussion, Alexander Sergunin, Professor at St. Petersburg State University and Director of the Center for Arctic Research and Projects, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), St. Petersburg, emphasised the importance of adapting to the new conditions: “When we are unable to develop major economic initiatives in the region due to sanctions, the formula ‘less oil and gas, more science and logistics’ becomes relevant. We expect India to invest more in the development of the Northern Sea Route and participate in scientific and innovative initiatives, such as the recently launched joint study of agro-energy systems for extreme conditions.”
Valery Konyshev, Head of the Department of Comparative Political Studies, Faculty of International Relations and Politics at the North-West Institute of Management of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), emphasised the need for extremely realistic assessments. “When discussing the Northern Sea Route, it is important to understand its physical, geographical, and economic limitations. The depths of the straits of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago impose significant restrictions on vessel tonnage. The economic feasibility of large-scale container shipping through the Arctic for India is unclear at this stage. However, this does not negate the geopolitical value of transport corridors such as the North-South corridor, which allow for the diversification of logistics flows.”
Mikhail Grigoryev, Vice Admiral Pradeep Chauhan, and Dr. Kanica Rakhra in discussion
Mikhail Grigoryev, Director of the consulting company GECON LLC, Senior Research Fellow at IMEMO, an expert in Arctic logistics, noted that the modern Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor is a complex logistics system: “It’s important to distinguish between the narrow concept of the ‘Northern Sea Route’ and the broader concept of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor. The former is only the maritime component, limited by the straits, while the latter is an integrated system combining sea, rail, and pipeline routes. Its main objective is the export of our hydrocarbons, and here the statistics are unbiased: the economic feasibility is primarily for East Asian markets. Over 11 years of observation, only one vessel out of 15,000 shipments to India has made it.”
“Therefore, the potential for Russian-Indian cooperation lies not in transit, but in increasing oil and LNG supplies, especially given potential future restrictions on the European direction, when the Indian market becomes strategically critical for us.”
Pradeep Chauhan, AVSM & Bar, VSM, IN (Retd), Director-General, National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi, emphasised security issues: “The Arctic is becoming a new space where the interests of great powers intersect. For India, the key issue is ensuring the security of maritime communications and preventing the escalation of tensions in the region. Cooperation with Russia in sharing ice data and search and rescue operations could be an important contribution to stability.”
Paul Arthur Berkman, Professor at the Science Diplomacy Center, USA, drawing on his experience participating in NATO-Russia dialogues since 2010, noted: “Today’s situation is reminiscent of the post-war 1950s, when the U.S. and the USSR, despite their differences, cooperated in Antarctica and space, recognising that it was a matter of survival. Today, we have a similar opportunity—to use science and diplomacy to shift the focus from conflict management to building common interests. The Arctic, where short-term risks and long-term opportunities collide, is a central platform for such dialogue.”
Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Managing Editor of Strategic Analysis presented a special issue of the journal devoted to the Changing Dynamics in the Arctic: Actors and Alliances and called take into account the geopolitical risks when planning and implementing major economic projects, as well considering more active development of scientific and educational projects.
Dr. Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, pointed to the potential in shipbuilding, port infrastructure development, and personnel training. The expert noted, “The Russian shipbuilding industry is under pressure due to Western sanctions. At the same time, India has ambitious plans to develop shipbuilding. Russian companies with experience developing northern ports can find new opportunities here.”
Aanchal Gulati Gumber, DD News journalist, emphasised the importance of soft power and the humanitarian dimension in the Arctic policy: “We talk about military strength and economic power, but we forget the importance of direct interaction between people, or soft power.”
“Media must create platforms for journalists from the Global South to share stories from the Arctic, making the region closer and more understandable,” she stated.
The Arctic Century’s Editor-in-Chief Mikhail Shabanov and Maksim Tsygankov, Deputy General Director for Analytics at the Project Office for Arctic Development sign an agreement on informational cooperation
The section moderators noted that, despite existing challenges, the dialogue between Russia and India on the Arctic agenda is constructive and pragmatic. Participants agreed that, in addition to energy and logistics, it is necessary to actively develop cooperation in science, renewable energy, protecting the rights of indigenous peoples, and creating an objective media image of the Arctic. These areas could become “quick wins” and strengthen trust between the two countries in the face of growing geopolitical instability.