Source: Flickr, Photo Phiend, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.
The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela has been a wake-up call for Canada, experts warn. President Donald Trump is serious when he says he wants to “dominate” the continent, from the Arctic to Tierra del Fuego—including Canada. One Arctic specialist believes that an incursion by U.S. warships into the Northwest Passage, where Canadian sovereignty is contested, is becoming a credible scenario.
Countries that dare to resist the Trump administration’s “unbridled imperialism” risk paying the price, one way or another, according to international relations experts. They mention economic pressure, as France has been experiencing for the past year, or acts of force to seize territory or resources.
“Canada must prepare for the possibility that President Donald Trump will soon send warships to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, commonly known as the Northwest Passage, without our permission,” wrote Franklyn Griffiths, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, in the Globe and Mail last October.
Reached by Le Devoir on Tuesday, this expert in the geopolitics of the Far North was even more concerned than he was three months ago: the hypothesis of an American incursion into the Canadian Arctic is not only plausible, but it would be a first step toward an attempt to “take control” of Canada, he warned.
“Canada risks facing a serious threat. We must prepare for difficult times,” Mr. Griffiths said by telephone from Toronto. This veteran academic admitted that he “never thought” he would be discussing such a serious existential threat to Canada.
The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy, unveiled at the end of 2025, declares that the United States aims to “dominate” the entire Western hemisphere. The American intervention in Venezuela last weekend is the first significant step confirming this claim to supremacy, according to the professor, co-author of the book Canada and the Changing Arctic: Sovereignty, Security, and Stewardship.
The Far North In The Crosshairs
Franklyn Griffiths believes it is plausible that the United States will soon attempt to annex Greenland, the vast Danish Arctic island bordering the Canadian Arctic. Donald Trump has been claiming for several months that he “needs” to possess Greenland for national security reasons.
The Canadian Arctic would logically be the next territory targeted by the Trump administration, Professor Griffiths points out. The United States and other nations have long contested Canadian sovereignty in the waters of the Far North, a territory coveted for its minerals, potential hydrocarbon reserves, and strategic location at the crossroads of Russia and North America.
The Americans have twice sent an oil tanker into the Northwest Passage without Canadian authorization, in 1969 and 1970, as well as an icebreaker in 1985. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in the first Trump administration, suggested in 2019 that such a challenge to Canadian sovereignty be repeated, but did not follow through.
Franklyn Griffiths points out that an American military incursion into the Northwest Passage would be much more than a mere publicity stunt. Such an action would create an explosive situation, where Russian and American nuclear-powered submarines could potentially cross paths in Canadian waters, with all the dangers that entails.
Back To The 19th Century
Justin Massie, a professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Quebec at Montreal, shares the sense of urgency expressed by his colleague at the University of Toronto. “Of course, Canada should be worried [about American imperialism]. I think we should have been worried a long time ago,” he states bluntly.
No one expects a full-scale invasion of Canada or the “arrest” of Prime Minister Mark Carney—the fate of the Venezuelan dictator. Trump and his inner circle, however, are showing that they are ready to redefine the rules governing the world order for the past 80 years to satisfy their thirst for power.
“We’re going back to the 19th century,” to the rule of “might makes right”, explains Professor Massie. An intervention by the “strongest” in Greenland would confirm once again Washington’s lack of regard for the “weak” who lack the means to defend their sovereignty. As if by chance, Trump relentlessly criticizes Canada’s “insufficient” military budgets, notes Justin Massie.
An American military deployment in Greenland could spell the end of NATO, the professor believes. Canada must position itself in this new world order, which, according to him, places it in the most precarious situation it has faced since the Second World War.
“Is the Canadian deployment in Latvia still logical, given that it is our territory that could be coveted by the United States? Europe must be ready to defend us, but what can Europe do to defend France?”
An Existential Crisis
If Prime Minister Mark Carney rarely speaks publicly about the extent of the threat to Canada’s sovereignty, it is partly to avoid provoking his unpredictable American counterpart, according to Frédéric Mérand, a professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Montreal.
“I can’t read Mark Carney’s mind, but I’m convinced he thinks about it constantly—when he gets up in the morning, when he shaves, when he eats, when he goes to bed at night,” the professor says.
The hope of France and other countries threatened by Trump is that the former reality TV host “will eventually become bogged down in the contradictions […] of his delusional imperialism,” Frédéric Mérand points out. He notes that the military operation against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela “was meticulously planned, but the subsequent political action was completely improvised.”
Experts lament that the countries threatened by Trump are unable to unite to resist the American juggernaut. They believe that the American people are best positioned, for the moment, to curb this authoritarian crusade. The midterm elections this fall will provide an indication of the strength of the resistance against Trump.
Source: Le Devoir (in French)