The Edvard Grieg field is located approximately 180 km west of Stavanger and was discovered in 2007.The worst thing for oil prices is uncertainty, says an expert who follows the oil industry closely. Source: Wikimedia Commons, Norsk olje og gass, Edvard Grieg, CC BY-SA 2.0

Uncertain times in the world mean that oil prices could fall in a short time. But there is no danger of a crisis in the Norwegian oil industry anytime soon, according to experts.

“The worst thing for oil prices is uncertainty. And when we now have political uncertainty introduced by Donald Trump, the oil price will fall,” says energy advisor Ulf Rosenberg.

He has followed the oil industry closely for 40 years as a journalist and advisor, and leads the Energy Capital project under the auspices of the Norwegian Association of Business in the Stavanger region.

“Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy,” says Rosenberg.

Last week, oil prices plunged below 60 dollars per barrel as a result of the turmoil in the global economy.

It was the first time the price of a barrel of North Sea oil fell below the symbolic threshold of 60 dollars since February 2021.

After that, Norway’s most important commodity price has risen, and on April 16 it was above 64 dollars.

The oil price is determined by supply and demand. When many people need oil, the price rises. When fewer people need it—or more is produced than the market needs—the price falls.

When something unexpected happens in the world, the price will fluctuate often and change quickly.

In 2025, political tensions have had a significant impact on the oil price. Earlier in April, the price fell sharply, and North Sea oil was at its lowest since 2021, according to AFP.

Analysts point to market unrest due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and fears of a weaker economy and lower oil demand, as a reason behind the price drop.

When oil prices increase, the costs of transportation and production of goods will also increase. This leads to higher prices for both imported food and, for example, electronics.

What affects the price?

• The level of production in major oil countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States
• Demand in the world economy, especially in countries such as China and India
• Political events and crises, such as war, sanctions or new tariffs OPEC and partners, who decide how much oil they will produce Exchange rates and speculation, because oil is traded in dollars and on the stock exchange

But turbulent times in the wider world mean that oil prices can quickly fall again.

An oil price of under 60 dollars a barrel is still far from a historically low price.

During the 2015 oil crisis, oil prices were down in the 2020s. We experienced the same during the pandemic in 2020–2021.

The income of the Norwegian oil fund will be lower than expected. This is confirmed by Rosenberg.

An immediate drop in the income of the oil fund of 15–20 percent may sound dramatic, but it is only the income of the oil fund that is reduced over a period of time, says Rosenberg.

Even if there is no crisis, this is affecting, among other things, the industry along the coast, which lives off assignments to the oil and gas industry.

The oil market is characterized by uncertainty as a result of an escalating trade conflict globally. This has contributed to price fluctuations in the short term, as we have seen in recent weeks, says Managing Director, Hildegunn Blindheim at Offshore Norway.

It is not just the offshore industry that is feeling the uncertainty. Taxi drivers are also feeling it, as they get more assignments when the oil industry is doing well.

Of course we notice a difference, before it was a lot. But now it is not as much, says taxi driver Georg Badalyan.

He has noticed the decline especially in the last two weeks.