Neither China nor Russia has made any territorial claims to the Canadian Arctic, as La Presse indicates. There is indeed a dispute between Moscow and Ottawa concerning extended continental shelves, but this refers to maritime areas—not territories.
Four researchers from the Graduate School of International Studies (ESEI) at Laval University express doubts about the threats to Canadian Arctic sovereignty posed by China and Russia. According to them, these two countries are currently too preoccupied to be truly interested in the Northwest Passage.
The authors, Frédéric Lasserre, Mathieu Landriault, Pauline Pic, and Stéphane Roussel, are, respectively, a full professor at Université Laval and a member of the École supérieure d’études internationales (ESEI), an associate professor at ENAP, a postdoctoral fellow at ESEI, and a professor at ENAP.
Since the Cold War, fiction and the media have periodically fueled the idea of conflict in the Arctic—as evidenced by the 1982 miniseries World War III, in which Soviet troops allegedly attempted to seize the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. But are these thoughts credible?
Yet, there is no indication that Moscow or Beijing intends or has the means to concretely challenge Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic.
Often Poorly Defined Threats
The nature of these threats to the Canadian Arctic is rarely specified. Certainly, in a context of increased shipping, it is essential that Canada equip itself with adequate means to monitor and protect these Arctic areas—patrol vessels, reconnaissance aircraft, etc. But what would Russia, or even China, want in the Canadian Arctic? “The president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, David Perry, explains that China and Russia have increased their “aggressiveness” regarding territorial claims,” wrote La Presse in a recent article. Yet, neither China nor Russia has made any territorial claim whatsoever in the Canadian Arctic.
There is indeed a dispute between Moscow and Ottawa concerning extended continental shelves, but this refers to maritime areas—not territories—where states have rights over resources, not full sovereignty.
Furthermore, neither Ottawa nor Moscow directly contests the other’s claims, leaving the door open for a future agreement.
Significant Logistical Constraints
How can one envision long-range military action by Russia, let alone China, on Canadian territory? Russia has few aerial refueling aircraft, which would make any prolonged air operation almost impossible.
Its surface warships, ill-suited to icy waters, would struggle to operate so far from their bases. China, for its part, could not risk an aircraft carrier in the Northwest Passage.
Regarding ground troops, with little air support and no naval support, what means of action would these detachments have against a Canadian adversary, admittedly small in number, but one that controls the terrain, is significantly closer to its bases, and has the advantage of time to subdue an invader? This is precisely the fate that the miniseries World War III reserved for the Soviet detachment parachuted into Alaska: deprived of air and logistical support, it was ultimately outmaneuvered by the American infantry.
The Real Threats
In reality, the military threat to the Canadian Arctic does not stem from a risk of invasion, but from hybrid threats: disinformation, attacks on civilian infrastructure, cyberattacks, and GPS jamming. These are more akin to sabotage and provocation.
Source: La Presse (in French)