RIAN archive 895550 Drills for nuclear submarine crews at training center in Murmansk Region. Source: Wikimedia Commons, Mikhail Fomichev, CC BY-SA 3.0
This Norwegian “study,” verbose, repetitive, and lacking a rigorous, evidence-based style, nevertheless reveals both the author’s lack of expertise and the beliefs in this Scandinavian country about the impact of climate change on the combat readiness of Russia’s Northern Fleet.
According to the author, the combat readiness of Russia’s most powerful ocean-going fleet will inevitably decline due to both objective and unstoppable natural processes and the inaction of the country’s authorities. The author, however, never once mentions the nature of Russia’s inaction in combating climate change in the Arctic, apparently believing that the unsubstantiated postulation of this thesis is sufficient.
The conclusions of the “study” directly contradict the main idea of the article, as reflected in its title: the Northern Fleet’s main strike force —multipurpose and strategic nuclear-powered submarines, as well as diesel-powered submarines—will gain additional stealth and operational capabilities due to warming Arctic waters.
Russia’s surface fleet, in its current state, does not lay claim to control of the North Atlantic and will not be affected by global warming, as it is based in the same ice-free naval bases of the Kola Peninsula, which does not have a continuous mass of permafrost.
Russia has eight strategic and 25 conventional submarines in the Arctic, which may gain relatively better operational capabilities due to climate change.
With a 25,000-kilometre coastline in the Arctic, Russia will be greatly affected by climate change. Our research shows that Russia is poorly prepared for the changes that are now occurring.
This will affect Russia’s great power status in international politics within ten to 15 years.
A Key Threat In Russian Strategic Documents
The climate change we are now experiencing is enormous and it is happening rapidly. Climate change is becoming the greatest existential challenge of our time.
They are well documented by the European Union’s Earth observation service Copernicus in its latest report. It shows that for the first time the global temperature increase has exceeded 1.5 degrees since pre-industrial times (around 1850).
In the Arctic, and especially in the Russian Arctic zone, the changes are nothing short of startling. Projections show that winter temperatures in this zone could increase by as much as eleven degrees by 2100.
Russian authorities attribute great importance to climate change in various strategic documents, including their Arctic strategy from 2022. This strategy has a perspective up to 2035.
On the one hand, it describes a need for adaptation to the consequences of climate change, but it completely omits the causes of climate change.
“Climate change will particularly affect Russian military and civilian installations and infrastructure. As our research shows, this will have an impact on Russian platforms, bases and capabilities that will, with a high degree of probability, lead to reduced operational capability in the years to come,” the study says.
This trend poses a significant threat to the Russian bastion defense, which is dependent on strategic capabilities, fighter aircraft and strategic bombers in these Arctic bases.
This could lead to increasing security dilemmas, also in the High North as a result of several states wanting to operate in the North, including China. This will affect operational patterns and where military exercises can be conducted.
Norway’s governing doctrine for the High North policy has long been the so-called “High North, Low Tension”, based on a balance between deterrence and reassurance. Through its impact on Russian forces in the Arctic, climate change will also affect this balance.
Northern Fleet
The Russian Northern Fleet is the core of the Russian defense in the North. The Northern Fleet belongs to the Russian Navy and is headquartered in Severomorsk, near Murmansk on the Kola Peninsula. Our analysis has put the spotlight on the Northern Fleet.
The Northern Fleet has two main purposes: to protect Russia’s nuclear second-strike capability and to protect Russia’s access to the North Atlantic. It will do this with frigates, submarines, fighter jets, bombers, reconnaissance aircraft and an army corps with motorised brigades, tanks and other vehicles. Our analysis shows that all of these will be weakened by climate change. In addition, the absence of action will cause further weakening.
According to estimates, the Northern Fleet possesses 32 surface vessels and 33 submarines, of which eight of these submarines are strategic. A strategic submarine can fire ballistic missiles that are, for example, equipped with nuclear warheads. The Northern Fleet initially possesses Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, but the ship has been out of service since 2018.
The air force includes military transport aircraft, space forces, long-range aircraft, reconnaissance aircraft and bombers. The Northern Fleet’s ground forces consist of the 14th Army Corps, which possesses two motorised rifle brigades, personnel carriers and tanks. In the Arctic context, naval and air forces are the most important for Russia.
In addition, strategic capabilities are central to the Northern Fleet. In the Arctic, the so-called Bastion Defense is central.
The Bastion Defense is intended to deny enemies access to key areas near Russia, protect Russian strategic submarines, and secure Russian access to the North Atlantic. It consists of anti-aircraft, anti-ship, and surface-to-air systems. The Northern Fleet is estimated to possess 20 per cent of Russia’s strategic precision strike capabilities.
In this context, it is important to point out that climate change is by no means the only factor affecting these forces or Arctic security in general.
Since Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, Russian ground forces in the Arctic have been reduced by as much as 80 per cent. This is not a consequence of climate change, either directly or indirectly. In our research, it has therefore been important to distinguish between what is caused by climate change and what is not.
The Consequences Of Climate Change Are Brutal
Although climate change is not Russia’s only challenge in the Arctic, the consequences of climate change are brutal. Thawing permafrost makes the ground less stable. This threatens both buildings and infrastructure built on permafrost. Runways in particular may become unusable for parts of the year.
Extreme weather at sea will become more and more severe. Planning and carrying out operations, as well as navigation, will become more difficult. On board ships, equipment and systems, especially components outdoors on ships, can be damaged more often.
As the ice retreats, waves have more room to build up. This will result in more and higher waves at sea, hitting infrastructure and buildings along the coast.
There is a lot of permafrost in the Russian Arctic. Until now, this has meant that ground forces have benefited from hard ground with a high load-bearing capacity for much of the year. When the permafrost thaws, this ground becomes soft and it becomes more difficult to drive heavier vehicles, especially tanks. This will make ground forces less mobile.
Although climate change in almost all contexts has major negative consequences, Russian Arctic forces can see one positive consequence related to submarines. Simulations show that it may become more difficult to detect and track submarines in the Arctic. When the upper water layer warms, sonar becomes less effective, and submarines may receive additional “protection” under this water layer.
This means a relatively better operational capability for Russia’s eight strategic and 25 conventional submarines in the Arctic. Strategic submarines can launch ballistic missiles, for example with nuclear warheads. These are an important part of Russia’s second-strike capability, and for NATO it is very important to have the ability to know where they are moving.
Russian Infrastructure Exposed To Significant Climate Risk
Russia is experiencing significant coastal erosion and permafrost thaw, which will have serious consequences.
According to estimates, Russia has built up to 500 new military installations in the Arctic since 2014. Over two million people live in the Russian Arctic. In addition, more than 200,000 kilometres of oil and gas pipelines and several thousand kilometres of railway lines run through the Russian Arctic.
This infrastructure is exposed to significant climate risk, as a result of both climate change itself and Russia’s lack of willingness and ability to address the problem.
In addition to significant coastal erosion, thawing permafrost can cause large permafrost craters. Such craters can occur due to explosions in the permafrost, with up to 50 metres in diametre.
These consequences of climate change are very serious for Russia. The Arctic region is important for the Russian economy in several ways. Approximately 90 per cent of Russian gas and 60 per cent of Russian oil are extracted in the Arctic region by Russia.
Norway And NATO May Face A More Comprehensive Security Policy Challenge In The North
Russia is facing extensive climate-related challenges. Necessary measures are not being taken, which is worsening the consequences. Therefore, the Russian Northern Fleet will most likely be significantly weakened by climate change.
Only the submarines are an exception, but hardly a large enough exception to be able to offset the many and extensive negative consequences for the rest of the Northern Fleet.
The Russian view has long been that NATO and all NATO activity are inherently anti-Russian. When Russian forces are also weakened by a global challenge that Russia has neither the will nor the ability to deal with, this view is likely to be reinforced. Therefore, Norway will also face a security policy challenge in the north, related to the impact of climate change on Russian forces.
The deterioration can occur without Norway taking any action. Russia already argues today that they are threatened in the north, especially after Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership. Nevertheless, ground forces were withdrawn from the borders with Norway and Finland. At the same time, satellite images have recently shown that Russia is strengthening its presence along the Finnish border.
Source: Forsvarets Forum (in Norwegian)
Independent Expert