French Nukes Can Be Deployed in Sweden in Wartime
France and Sweden have initiated an in-depth dialogue on nuclear deterrence—a historic step, according to Karl Sörenson, research director at FOI.
On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that an in-depth dialogue on nuclear deterrence is being initiated with a handful of European countries, including Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Belgium and the Netherlands.
Karl Sörenson, research director at the Swedish National Defence Research Institute, FOI’s nuclear weapons analysis program, says that the announcement represents a major difference from how French nuclear weapons doctrine has looked before.
“It is in a sense a historic step in that it is not being extended, it is not being divided, but it is being worked on,” he says.
Not Part of NATO Group
Unlike the nuclear powers Great Britain and the United States, France is not part of NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group (NPG). They have their own mandate for their almost 300 warheads.
Great Britain and the United States are making their arsenals available to the alliance while of course retaining their independent decisions, says Sörenson.
When France is to deepen the dialogue with Sweden, among others, it means that the countries want to understand each other better and be able to have open discussions.
“We need to understand how France thinks about its nuclear deterrence and they need to understand how we think. It could be about what situations they believe could arise that need to be handled in terms of security policy, to anticipate them with conventional means, so that you don’t have to go to the nuclear level in deterrence,” says Sörenson.
“This does not automatically mean that France will want to station nuclear weapons here.”
Kristersson Has Agreed
Sweden has agreed to the in-depth dialogue, according to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who at the same time points out that the Swedish nuclear doctrine of not having nuclear weapons on Swedish soil in peacetime remains firm.
The dialogue could also be about what happens in a more complicated situation for Europe, if Russia were to attack and want to counter French or British nuclear weapons, according to Sörenson. Then they would need to be spread out to increase deterrence against Russia.
“In that case, one measure could be to temporarily deploy aircraft, for example, that are armed. Sweden could potentially be included there, but I’m not sure that’s the idea in terms of operations either,” says Karl Sörenson.
France has around 290 warheads in its nuclear arsenal. They can be fired from aircraft and submarines.
Swedish Parties Are Divided on the Nuclear Weapons Issue
Five out of eight parties in the Riksdag want Sweden to contribute to nuclear deterrence in Europe. This is shown by a survey conducted by SVT.
Half of the parties in the Riksdag are also open to the possibility of nuclear weapons being placed in Sweden in the event of war.
“Yes. Given the security situation we find ourselves in, we should participate in constructive talks in Europe,” writes the Center Party.
“Yes. We are open to Sweden supporting an expanded European nuclear deterrent if, overall, it strengthens our ability to deter continued Russian aggression in Europe,” responds the Liberal Party.
The Moderates, the Sweden Democrats, the Christian Democrats, the Liberals and the Center Party are positive that Sweden should participate in building up a European nuclear deterrent. Among other things, through joint NATO exercises and in-depth dialogue and cooperation with Great Britain and France.
The Green Party and the Left Party are clear opponents, while the Social Democrats respond that they do not want to see more nuclear weapons.
“We should stick to the structure that exists in NATO today. We are very concerned about whether the non-proliferation treaty is being undermined in different ways in different processes,” Morgan Johansson, foreign policy spokesperson, tells SVT.
Opening for Nuclear Weapons in Wartime
The Riksdag has agreed that nuclear weapons should not be placed in Sweden in peacetime. If instead we talk about wartime, half of the parties in the Riksdag are open to the possibility of nuclear weapons being placed in Sweden.
“We do not rule out any measures that can serve Swedish security in wartime, including nuclear weapons on Swedish soil,” responds the Christian Democrats, for example.
The Left Party and the Green Party would have preferred to see a legal ban.
“We want to see legislation that prohibits the import of nuclear weapons into Swedish territory in both peacetime and wartime,” responds the Green Party.
Sweden signed the so-called Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968. However, the recent increased uncertainty about the US’s commitment to Europe’s security has given new life to discussions about a European nuclear capability that is not dependent on the US.
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