In the 20th century, Sweden was at the forefront of a demographic counterrevolution, the main result of which was an accelerated transition from expanded to contracted population replacement, which ended after World War II. The fertility rate fell below replacement in 1930, followed by a period of expanded reproduction from 1941 to 1973.
In 1976, the excess fertility (births minus deaths) among Swedish citizens gave way to a deficit. For the past 52 years, through 2025, Sweden has been in a downward demographic spiral of the native population, slowly increasing its size only through incoming migration. The negative net fertility rate among the native-born population of Sweden increased in the early 1980s.
Thus, a long-term trend in which the indigenous population ‘fails to reproduce itself’ and dies at a higher rate than it is born began in the second half of the 1970s. In the long term, the country will continue to host an increasing number of people of other cultures, primarily from disadvantaged countries, but is unlikely to retain its national identity.
Sweden has not become a melting pot like the United States: the country is numerically small, and migrants retain their culture, language, and familiar customs and traditions, including by showing disrespect for Swedish values, non-violence, and for human life.
One compelling example of the failure of the inherently flawed multiculturalism policy is the rise in crimes against the individual, including homicide, the growth of organized gangs, and juvenile delinquency.
Children with Guns in Their Hands, Like in Central America
In 2024, approximately 1,700 children and adolescents under the age of 18 were identified as active members of criminal networks in Sweden, making up 13% of the country’s organized crime actors (Swedish Police Authority, 2024). According to the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå), the number of children involved in shootings leading to injury or death has also tripled over the past five years, rising from 9 in 2019 to 29 by mid-2024. Within the 15—20 age group, serious violent crime suspects increased by nearly 400% between 2014 and 2023.
One police investigation revealed how a 19-year-old gang member offered an 11-year-old boy 150,000 kronor (approx. €13,600) to carry out a murder. The boy had posted on Instagram, “I can’t wait for my first dead body,” to which the recruiter replied, “Stay motivated, it’ll come.”
Another case involved a 16-year-old who fatally shot a father in his home, then turned the gun on the man’s wife and two-year-old child, both of whom survived. The next day, he killed two more women, relatives of a rival gang member.
He received a record 12-year youth sentence—the maximum allowed—illustrating how gangs exploit Sweden’s age-based sentencing rules: offenders under 15 cannot be prosecuted, while those aged 15—17 face shorter sentences than adults, even for the most serious crimes.
Stricter Laws
There are no effective ways to address the rise in serious juvenile delinquency, as it reflects the overall state of society. Therefore, politicians generally prefer simple solutions, such as harsher punishments, which human rights advocates oppose. A radical solution to the problem requires a complete overhaul of society, educating its members in a spirit of responsibility, humanism, a balance of individual rights and responsibilities, and a reconsideration of the role of family and society in raising children. This is too complex for politicians with their five-year terms between elections and a lack of long-term forecasts and plans. Punishment seems to be an easier solution.
The age of criminal responsibility will be temporarily lowered for serious crimes such as murder, attempted murder, bombings and aggravated rape, says Swedish Minister of Justice Gunnar Strömmer at a press conference where the government’s proposal was presented.
The age of criminal responsibility will be lowered to 13 years for serious crimes, the Tidö parties propose in a new legislative council referral.
“One of our absolutely crucial tasks is to put a stop to the gangs’ use of children and young people,” says Minister of Justice Gunnar Strömmer.
The Tidö parties continue to take a tough stance against young criminals. During a press conference on Monday, they presented a series of new proposals for stricter rules.
The new legislative council referral includes, among other things, the controversial proposal to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 13 years for serious crimes.
We have an urgent situation and the measures we take must reflect the problems we have, says Gunnar Strömmer.
The age of criminal responsibility is to be lowered for a period of five years, according to the proposal. The change will apply to crimes with a minimum sentence of four years in prison, as well as attempts, preparation and stamping for these crimes.
Criticism: ‘No Objective Arguments’
The proposal is seen by Fredrik Hjulström, social policy manager at the Swedish Association of Academics, with employees from, among others, the Swedish Prison and Probation Service and the Social Services.
“There are no objective arguments for what they are proposing. The studies available in the area are clear. We believe that the only reasonable thing is for the children to receive care, not be punished,” he says.
Fredrik Hjulström believes that the bill is about scoring political points.
“It is politics. You have to win elections and show action.”
Responding to Criticism
The new legislative council’s report is based on an investigation that the Tidö parties appointed in 2023.
The proposal to lower the age of criminal responsibility has previously been met with sharp criticism, including from several consultation bodies.
The Swedish Prison and Probation Service argued in its response to the consultation that imprisonment at a young age can lead to negative consequences. The agency also pointed out that children ‘as young as 13 years old should be taken care of in other ways.’
“These are risks we take very seriously. But according to our collective assessment, the risks of continuing with the current system are even greater,” says Gunnar Strömmer.
Several New Proposals
Last week, the government presented a number of other legislative proposals that will make it easier to investigate young criminals. Among the proposals was extended detention periods for children under 18.
Li Melander, a child rights lawyer at Unicef Sweden, said in an interview with SVT that the organization is ‘deeply concerned’ about the new bills.
“We see this clear shift towards more repressive measures against children. And it will only gradually erode children’s rights,” she said.
Here are the Tidö parties’ new bills:
- The age of criminal responsibility is lowered to 13 years.
- Abolish the penalty discount for people between 18 and 20 years of age.
- Significantly reduce the penalty discount for people under 18 years of age.
- The maximum penalty for convicted people under 18 years of age is increased from 14 years in prison to 18 years in prison.
- Prosecutors will bring evidentiary charges in more cases.
- Youth supervision as a punishment will be tightened and used in more cases.
- The laws are proposed to come into force on July 1, 2026.
Source: SVT (in Swedish)
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