A Vision of a New North Atlantic Superpower
An original solution to the EU’s existential crisis, primarily caused by poor governance in Brussels and the national egoism of its 27 member states, was proposed yesterday by Eirik Winter, CEO of BNP Paribas, Nordics.
This brainchild of the head of the regional branch of the world’s ninth-largest bank by capital cannot fail to arouse the interest of The North Observer. It turns out that a new specter is haunting Europe, not the specter of Karl Marx’s communism, but the specter of a unique renovation of the European Union, including the inclusion of Canada, the UK, and, for some reason, the inherently isolationist Switzerland.
The timing of this publication by the author, who once proposed the United States of Northern Europe, is easy to explain: the existing European Union is stuck in the quicksand of a powerful euro-bureaucracy, has lost its momentum, and is in danger of becoming a history museum visited by representatives of more economically successful countries—unless, of course, their security is threatened by migrants rapidly replacing the indigenous population of the “old, but no longer so kind Europe.”
In a world losing its post-war architecture of international relations, anything is becoming possible, as the Swedish-born banker is convinced. He proposes, first and foremost, the unification of a group of predominantly geographically northern European countries, which would inject new speed and momentum into the ailing EU, serving as an example for the inert Central and Southern Europe.
The project excludes countries that consider themselves the backbone of the EU—Germany, France, and, of course, the mañana countries of Spain and Italy. All Eastern European countries are also left out, with the exception of the Baltics, a region dear to the author’s heart, where branches of the Nordic arm of BNP Paribas, which he heads, operate.
Since reforming the European Union is impossible due to bureaucratic paralysis, as demonstrated by the fiasco of Mario Draghi’s “cry in the night” report, presented on September 9, 2024, which proposed a plan for reform and accelerated economic development through the development of innovation and advanced technologies, there remains only one solution: to form a group of EU and non-EU countries that could potentially become both the driving force of the entire union and create a functional and effective transatlantic economic union.
This idea contains original components: a composition of members of a new economic superpower, perhaps unexpected even by its author, the third largest in the world by nominal GDP after the United States and China; a Nordic, or Scandinavian, economic model (does it still exist?) as a model for the entire proposed union; its functioning without legal registration, requiring lengthy procedures, including referendums.
The composition of the candidate countries destined to accelerate the rusty train of the European Union remains a mystery. Are the British and Canadians, not to mention Switzerland, ready to adopt the defunct Scandinavian socioeconomic model, which has led to Finland’s lack of real economic growth since 2008, as a model for organizing their economies and societies? Are the legal and social systems of such disparate countries compatible? Are the populations of these countries ready for such a radical change to their established status quo in favor of a freakish project? The answer is clear: no.
It seems that what we have before us is the fantasy of someone who hasn’t transcended the boundaries of regional, northern thinking, living in his own imaginary world, where the now-defunct Scandinavian model still lives on, flushed, and where a wheel, torn from a European automobile, can accelerate innovatively toward a brighter tomorrow, while being not a fragment, but a part of the unaccelerating, old, lazy, and fat carcass of the European Union.
How can the service-based economies of the countries joining the bloc rapidly industrialize, build high-tech economies, and compete on equal terms with the true global economic superpowers, China and the United States, while having rapidly aging populations, ineffective governance structures, and a lack of sufficient resources of all kinds?
I think the reader will understand that the Swedish banker’s proposal is a game of pure reason, dealing not with reality, but with an ideal world in which anything is possible, since the human mind is by nature free and capable of riding the roller coaster of its imagination and dreams. Thanks to Eirik for this flight of thought, which will never be realized.
A North Atlantic Superpower Gives Us Power and Security
When the world economy is redrawn in real time, Europe acts as if we still had time. We no longer do. When power has once again become geography, technology and capital, Europe’s most competitive economies cannot continue to behave like small states, writes Eirik Winter.
The US is strengthening its military, technological and financial grip on the world. China is doing the same through industrial dominance, control of raw materials and geopolitical weight. Russia is a constant threat. At the same time, the EU is getting stuck in processes, compromises and reports that are not translated into action.
Mario Draghi’s alarm about Europe’s competitiveness was intended as a wake-up call. Yet, according to analysts, only about ten percent of the proposals have been translated into concrete reforms and action.
It is not just frustrating. It is strategically dangerous. Little progress has been made on a unified capital markets union. Differences in pension systems, taxes, political sensitivities and divided views on supervision are some of the reasons.
Perhaps that is why the time is ripe to think differently, more globally and broadly. Not in the form of yet another European reform agenda, but by building something new: a North Atlantic economic superpower.
Imagine a deepened economic bloc consisting of the Nordic countries, the UK, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Poland, the Baltics and Canada. Together, this circle would have a combined GDP of around $1.2 trillion (as of 2025 the countries’ nominal GDP was $11.4 trillion—The North Observer)—the world’s third largest economy after the US and China.
The Nordic Model Ranks Highly and Our Commonalities Are Striking
This is not a fantasy. It is already a region with coherent values, high trust, technological leadership, strong institutions and advanced capital markets. We are talking about world-leading positions of strength in AI, life sciences, energy transition, defense technology, finance, industrial automation and raw materials. London, Zurich, Stockholm, Amsterdam, Warsaw and Toronto are not the periphery, but an already existing geography of power.
But We Do Not Act as a Common Power. We Should Start Doing That
A North Atlantic partnership should start informally and pragmatically: common capital markets, coordinated industrial subsidies, integrated energy systems, fast-track innovation, defense investments and a common strategic trade policy.
Finnish President Stubb recently visited Canada and played ice hockey with Mark Carney, Canada’s straightforward prime minister. The Nordic model ranks highly and our common features are striking, often much more so than countries that are geographically closer to us. It is not only ice hockey that unites us.
We Cannot Delegate Our Future and Security to Countries That We Cannot Fully Trust
Not as an alternative to the EU or NATO—but as a powerful complement, and a catalyst, where the old structures are moving too slowly. History shows that geopolitical relevance rarely goes to the largest, but to the best organized.
Here we are in a class of our own. The Nordics understand this intuitively. We built prosperity through openness, institutions and cooperation long before the concept of strategic autonomy became a buzzword in Brussels. Let us look up and lead by example.
Britain is seeking a new global role after Brexit. Poland is emerging as a European center of gravity. Canada shares both security interests and economic logic with this circle. Switzerland and the Netherlands are already hubs in Europe’s financial and commercial infrastructure. We have so much in common, as well as comparative advantages that are complementary.
The objection is of course immediate: another bloc? More fragmentation? Quite the opposite. What is truly fragmented is today’s Europe, where 27 countries are trying to create an industrial strategy through unanimity. Major elections in many key countries threaten to further renege on the necessary European reforms. The world is not waiting for European processes.
This is while the US and China are dividing the world. We must cooperate with them, but we cannot delegate our future and security to countries that we cannot fully trust. This applies to the economy, energy and defense. We are far too dependent on these great powers. We need a gathering of forces.
The Question Is Not Whether a North Atlantic Bloc Is Too Radical, It Is a Stark Necessity
A North Atlantic superpower is not just about GDP. It could become the world’s strongest democratic innovation zone. An economic pool with the ability to set standards, attract capital and defend openness. A common force to stand up to the big ones.
And perhaps most importantly: it would give smaller and medium-sized countries something they otherwise lack in a world of great powers—scale. It is precisely scale that Europe has lost and continues to lose.
We have long thought that integration must always start in Brussels. But the history of Europe shows the opposite. Schengen began outside the EC. The euro was driven by core countries. Much of what later became European began as coalitions of the willing. Stockholm is The Capital of Capital, with a share culture that Europe can only dream of. We are far ahead, but we are too small.
That is how the next step can also begin. The question is not whether a North Atlantic bloc is too radical, it is a stark necessity. The status quo is simply too dangerous. Europe is becoming a museum without relevance. When power has once again become geography, technology and capital, Europe’s most competitive economies cannot continue to behave like small states.
We should act as what we together already are: a superpower.
Source: Dagens industri (in Swedish)
