Norway Is One of the Main Beneficiaries of the Middle East War
For Norway, an important player in the European and global oil and gas markets, the Israeli and US attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means a colossal increase in revenues from the sale of these strategic raw materials.
While a sharp increase in oil and gas production in the Land of the Fjords is impossible for technical, political, and ideological reasons, the increased revenues could mean more funding for exploration and the development of new oil and gas fields.
The statements by Norwegian experts cited below suggest a focus on increasing Europe’s autonomy in energy supply by relying on fields in the North and Barents Seas, because the politically unstable Middle East could cause dangerous imbalances with unpredictable frequency and duration.
While the European oil market is stabilized by large strategic reserves, a legacy of the terrible Middle East crisis of 1973–1974, the EU gas market is in turmoil. Gas storage facilities, not filled to capacity in 2024, have been emptied by the cold winter, LNG from the USA is expensive, the severance of gas relations with Russia is almost complete, and LNG from the Persian Gulf, particularly Qatar, is not reaching the global market. Furthermore, Europe is losing the price war for scarce LNG to the wealthy countries of Southeast Asia.
The time has come for Europe to pay the price for the astonishing incompetence and stupidity of its feeble-minded political leadership, both at the national level and in Brussels. An energy crisis lasting six months to a year will completely destroy Europe’s remaining industry, increase inflation, stun its citizens with heating and electricity bills, and trigger the collapse of its socio-political systems, potentially leading to the uncontrollable chaos that Europe, in alliance with the United States, so diligently promoted in North Africa and the Middle East. And it would be very fair. “He who sows the wind reaps the whirlwind” (Hosea 8<7>).
Norwegian Gas Exports
Norwegian gas exports were lower in 2025 than in 2024, which was a record year for gas production, but remained at a historically high level. In 2025, Norway exported around 122 billion Sm³ gas, mainly to other countries in Europe. The gross energy content in the total volume of Norwegian sales gas corresponds to about eight times normal Norwegian electricity production.
In much of Europe, gas is an important source of energy for heating homes and industrial buildings, gas is used for cooking, as feedstock in industrial processes and is used in gas-fired power plants to generate electricity. Gas exports from Norway in 2024 equaled more than 30 percent of the total gas consumption of the EU and the United Kingdom, and made an important contribution to energy security in Europe.
Exports of Oil, Condensate, and NGL
Norwegian oil production reached a peak in 2001, when total liquid production, including NGL and condensate, was 3.4 million barrels of oil equivalents a day, and then declined by approximately 5% on a yearly average until 2011. The production has since been more stable. In 2025, production of oil liquids (crude, NGL and condensate) was around 2 million barrels per day, and Norway now supplies about 2% of global oil consumption.
In 2024, Norway exported about 95 million Sm³ (1.6 million barrels per day) of crude oil directly to other countries, and 7.5 million Sm³ (0.13 million barrels per day) was delivered to onshore facilities in Norway. Crude oil purchasers are mainly refineries, which process the oil to produce fuel and other oil products.
More Money for Norway
A gigantic surge in gas prices means that Norway is earning 1.1 billion kroner more today than before the attack on Iran.
Nordea’s investment director, Robert Næss, has looked at the dramatic price fluctuations after the weekend’s escalation. And the sums are enormous.
During the conversation, Næss looks at the latest updated figures and does the math.
“Let’s see, now there is actually 1.1 billion kroner in extra gas revenues every day compared to before the attack,” he says.
Equivalent to an Oil Price of 110 Dollars
Although the oil price has risen by around 15 percent (around 11 dollars a barrel) since Friday, it is in the gas market that the change is truly dramatic.
“If we convert this to oil, it corresponds to a price of 110 dollars,” says analyst Helge André Martinsen at DNB Carnegie.
He explains that the world has oil reserves to draw on, while gas is far more difficult to store.
“Around 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the Strait of Hormuz. When Qatar Energy also has to shut down its LNG production, the situation becomes acute,” says Martinsen.
Europe is particularly vulnerable. After Russian gas largely disappeared as a result of the situation in Ukraine, Europe has become dependent on LNG imports.
Around 40 percent of Europe’s gas imports are LNG.
In addition, gas stocks are generally low during the winter months. And now the stocks are around 30 percent full, which is lower than normal for the time of year.
“When we now lose access from the Middle East, there is a desperation for gas that sends prices skyrocketing,” explains Martinsen.
And this affects, among other things, the inhabitants of European countries. In just the last few days, for example, electricity prices in Germany have increased by around 20 percent.
Cannot Continue
“There is practically a halt to the shipping traffic that usually passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This cannot continue for very long,” says Næss.
He points out that both China, the US and Iran themselves are dependent on the transport and delivery of gas being resumed.
Næss is supported by Martinsen at DNB Carnegie.
“Neither Iran’s friends nor enemies want to see the Strait of Hormuz closed over time,” he says.
The analyst points out that a sustained stoppage in energy supplies could quickly have other negative consequences such as increased inflation.
He believes that the vulnerability in Europe is leading to an increased focus on the importance of the continent’s energy production. This applies to both oil and gas, but especially renewable energy.
“It is clear that the type of topic we have now is yet another reminder of how strategically important energy security is.”
Oil Prices Rise Sharply—Expert Believes It Could Double
On Friday afternoon, March 6, the price of North Sea oil passed 90 dollars a barrel. This is the highest level since 2024.
The price increase comes after the US and Israel waged war against Iran, and sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran controls.
Experts call oil “the blood of the world economy”, and the oil price is Norway’s most important commodity price.
Oil Prices Could Be Much Higher
Head of the analysis agency Rystad Energy, Jarand Rystad, believes that oil prices could double if the war in the Middle East lasts for months and years.
“In a prolonged war, about 15 million barrels that you need to have through the Strait of Hormuz could be lost. Then we could experience much higher oil prices than today, perhaps twice as high,” says Jarand Rystad.
But the main scenario for the analysis agency is that the price drop will end within three to four weeks.
“The markets are quite optimistic about this, and that we can then start to resume shipping traffic,” says Rystad.
Rystad believes that a price of around 90 dollars a barrel is not that high, given the situation in the world.
“No, I am surprised that it is not even higher. But that is because the world is prepared for such a situation.”
Does Not Believe in a Long-Term Price Run
Energy advisor Ulf Rosenberg has followed the oil industry closely for 40 years as a journalist and advisor.
“The fact that the oil price is not higher, given that a third of all oil on ships passes through Hormuz, indicates that the market does not believe this will be a long-term situation,” he says.
He believes that the oil price could rise sharply in the short term if the blockade continues for more than a few weeks.
“In any case, what controls activity on the Norwegian shelf is the willingness to invest, both in exploration and development. When it comes to developments, I think the oil companies will still test the profitability of the projects against an oil price of 30–35 dollars.”
The energy advisor believes that the blockade shows how dependent Europe is on imported oil and gas.
“It will be another reminder of how serious it is that Europe has neglected its own oil and gas production. If the situation in the Middle East continues with chaos and civil war in several countries, this will only be seen even more in the spotlight,” says Rosenberg.
Better Calculations with High Oil Prices
The Worley Rosenberg shipyard in Stavanger is an important supplier to the Norwegian oil industry.
In the short term, the drop in oil prices does not mean anything for the cornerstone company in Stavanger, according to director Jan Narvestad.
He says that they are dependent on larger projects, which often have a longer time horizon.
— What could it mean for you in the longer term, if the price remains high?
”It is a difficult picture. High oil prices can be good for the industry, but not for society in general. There are pluses and minuses.”
“If you have a high oil price, you have a better calculation when you calculate investments in potential projects. You can imagine that it is positive for the industry in isolation in terms of financing potential projects,” explains the Rosenberg director.
Large Oil Stocks
Analyst Jarand Rystad points out that it is not the first time there has been unrest in the Middle East, and that measures have been taken that ensure that the producing countries have large oil stocks.
He points out that China has at least 140–150 days of oil stocks, while Europe and Japan have stocks that last 90–110 days. India has stocks for 60 days, according to the expert.
“So consumers will be able to cope for a while. There are some safety valves that mean that the oil market is not even more strained than it is for the time being.”
— We have seen a pump price for fuel that is a couple of kroner higher than usual. Does what you are saying now mean that the effects for Norwegians will be relatively modest?
”Yes, it does. But there is a scenario where the Iranian regime manages to hold on and continue with and even mine the Strait of Hormuz. It is unlikely. But if that happens, I can see a completely different level.”
Source:
- NRK (in Norwegian)
- NRK (in Norwegian)
- Norsk Petroleum (in Norwegian)
