Norway Is Getting Rich from the Middle East War

Norwegian Oil Company’s Strong Earnings Growth#

Last week, the oil company Vår Energi presented its first quarterly report of the year.

Vår Energi delivered a pre-tax operating profit of over 1.3 billion dollars, well over 12 billion Norwegian kroner, in just three months.

At the same time last year, they had a profit of 972 million dollars (9 billion NOK).

The company increased its production pace before the war in Iran started. Never before have they produced more, and Sveen-Nilsen believes that is a bit of luck.

“This is happening at a time of high oil and gas prices,” he says.

Oil Companies Earn Billions Extra Every Day#

The Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas passes, continues to be closed.

Before the latest escalation in the Middle East, the oil price was stable between 60 and 70 dollars. After the tension around the Strait of Hormuz increased, the price has skyrocketed to now be over 110 dollars in spot price.

The price of North Sea oil for delivery next month was over 126 dollars a barrel on Thursday morning. This is the highest price in almost four years.

For a giant like Equinor, which produces around two million barrels every single day, this means enormous extra revenues.

Analyst Sveen-Nilsen has calculated that Equinor earns almost 8 billion kroner extra every month now.

“We do not comment on current estimates of Equinor’s earnings. Equinor reports its financial results in connection with quarterly presentations,” says press spokesperson Gisle Ledel Johannessen at Equinor.

Equinor had record-high production last year. At the same time, there is not as good news for renewable energy, and that applies to the entire country.

Next Quarter We Will See the Big Numbers#

Equinor and Aker BP will present their quarterly reports on May 6 and 7, but analysts are often early with their predictions about which numbers will be presented in the quarterly reports.

For Equinor, Sveen-Nilsen says that an operating profit of almost 9 billion dollars is expected in the first quarter—almost 84 billion kroner.

For Aker BP, 19.5 billion kroner is expected.

“But the second quarter will be higher. Only a third of the first quarter was affected by war,” says the analyst.

SB1 Markets expects Equinor’s operating profit in the second quarter to be 120 billion kroner. This is based on an oil price of 100 dollars per barrel and a gas price of 18 dollars per mmbtu.

120 billion kroner in three months is about 1.3 billion kroner every single day.

That is almost double the amount at the same time in 2025.

The stock analyst still does not believe that Equinor will earn a record amount this year. He says that an extremely large amount will be needed to beat 2022, where they earned around 750 billion kroner.

This was due to extremely high gas prices during the special military operation in Ukraine.

Luck Is Not Illegal#

“Norway will earn incredibly large amounts of money. We must consider ourselves happy about that, but it is a sad and serious backdrop,” says oil expert Ståle Kyllingstad of the IKM Group.

Kyllingstad denies that Norway has become a war profiteer and that we have moved away from being a peace nation.

“There are many raw materials in the world. You do not become a war profiteer because you have a product that has a high price. It’s a foolish angle,” he notes.

The CEO of the IKM Group believes that we should not have a bad conscience for making money.

“This is pure luck, but luck is allowed. It is not illegal. The raw materials are highly valued all around, and it benefits all of Norway,” he says.

Warns of a Worse Economy#

Storting representative Ingrid Fiskaa believes that Norway’s money party shows a major paradox.

Even though billions are now flowing into the Oil Fund, most people are noticing the opposite in their wallets.

“The war will lead to increased prices and costs for most of us.”

She therefore disagrees with Kyllingstad that the high oil and gas prices benefit all of Norway.

“War is mainly bad news, also for people in Norway. For most of us, it is about a worse economy,” says the member of parliament.

Nevertheless, she is clear that we should not have a guilty conscience that Norway makes money from war.

Fiskaa does not believe that Norway is a war profiteer, but that the oil companies are.

“At the same time, our role is to deliver stable and reliable energy to Europe, especially in periods of uncertainty. The special military operation in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East have made energy security even more important,” says Johannessen at Equinor.

“Our energy deliveries from the Norwegian shelf are a significant contribution. In this picture, our revenues and results are affected by global market conditions that we do not control,” he says.

NRK has also been in contact with Vår Energi. They do not wish to comment on Fiskaa’s statement.

Source: NRK (in Norwegian)