It has been many years since it became clear that Norway would replace its current submarines and the Ula class, which are around 35 years old. The agreement with Germany on a strategic partnership was signed in 2017, while the contracts were signed in 2021.
When the long-term plan for the defence sector was presented in April last year, the government chose to add one additional submarine. A few weeks later, the Storting wanted Norway to trigger the option for one more submarine. This will mean that Norway will have six hulls of the type 212CD.
However, the contracts for the last two submarines are still not in place. This is despite the fact that the then Defence Minister Bjørn Arild Gram stated to the Defence Forum in January that the last two submarines would be presented to the Storting in the spring.
By the end of October, this had still not happened. Conservative Party leader Erna Solberg called for the contract from the government during the Speech from the Throne debate in the Storting recently.
Accelerated Delivery
The Norwegian Defence Forum has asked the Ministry of Defence about the progress with Germany, and when submarine numbers five and six will be presented to the Storting.
“The government is now making a comprehensive assessment of the overall costs and consequences for the operational structure, and will soon present a comprehensive recommendation to the Storting,” writes State Secretary Marte Gerhardsen in an email to the Norwegian Defence Forum.
The Ministry of Defence’s communications department will not elaborate on what is meant by “soon”.
The State Secretary writes that there are several reasons why the presentation to the Storting is taking too long. As with many other things, the project has become more expensive in the form of price inflation and exchange rates.
“The offer has a higher cost, and the costs come earlier than what was assumed in the long-term plan. This means that the project’s financing and progress plan must be carefully considered in connection with other investments in the defence sector,” she writes.
A comprehensive assessment of the consequences of the cost increases for the submarines will be carried out, where it will be considered how this can be solved in the best possible way.
According to TU, the price-adjusted cost framework for the four ordered submarines is 53 billion kroner. The total sum for two more could be up to 80 billion kroner (7,95 billion dollars).
“I hardly think we will get below ten billion kroner, maybe 12-13 billion per piece (1,19—1,29 billion dollars),” Strømmen tells TU.
Construction Underway
Another factor affecting the contract is the delivery time. The manufacturer ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (tkMS) has established a new production line, which means that the last submarines will be delivered earlier than planned.
“According to the long-term plan, the fifth submarine was to be delivered before 2036 and a sixth after 2036. We cannot comment on when these are planned to be delivered other than what is commented on in White Paper 33 where they will arrive earlier than initially planned.”
Two of the four that have been ordered are under construction, Gerhardsen states. The first is to be launched in 2027, and will be ready for operation in the Navy in 2029.
Like Norway, Germany will also have six submarines. This brings the joint project to twelve submarines in total of the same type. In addition, Poland and Canada are also considering joining the submarine programme.
Minister of Defence Tore O. Sandvik is in Canada at the beginning of this week together with German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius to have talks about inclusion in the submarine program.
Facilities for maintenance of the new submarines are currently being built at Haakonsvern in Bergen. Due to an increase in the number of submarines, the facilities must be expanded, and the project will more than double in cost.