Trump’s Statements#

On Tuesday, in a meeting with the press, U.S. President Donald Trump made several sensational statements about the Ukraine war.

Not only did he state that he now believes Ukraine can win the war with NATO’s help, he also said yes when a journalist asked him whether NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes that enter their airspace.

“Trump’s suggestion that it is enough to shoot down Russian planes is very, very bad advice in this situation,” says Russia researcher Julie Wilhelmsen at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Affairs (Nupi).

She points out that there is one thing that both Russia and NATO have been “quite careful” not to contribute to the war escalating into a Russia-NATO war.

Nuclear Powers#

“It is bad for Ukraine that they become the battlefield and the victim, but there has been something positive in that restraint,” she says, emphasising that both Russia and the NATO countries are nuclear powers.

“Therefore, the situation that has arisen in the airspace of Poland, the Baltics, and with Russian violations of the airspace also in the high north, is a very dangerous development,” Wilhelmsen tells NTB.

Recently, both Poland, Romania and Estonia have reported either Russian drones or fighter jets in their airspace. In addition, the drones come over Copenhagen Airport Kastrup, where Danish authorities do not rule out Russian involvement.

At Oslo Airport Gardermoen, something that may have been drones was observed on Tuesday night. The airport was closed for several hours, but on Wednesday the police reported that it is still unclear what was actually observed.

According to the government, Russian aircraft have also violated Norwegian airspace three times this year.

NATO has stated that they perceive the violations as a provocation from the Russian side, and that there must now be a clear indication that NATO will defend its own territory.

“The message is clear: We are ready to defend every inch, said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at a press conference in Brussels on Tuesday.”

Must Avoid Misunderstandings#

According to Wilhelmsen, the NATO countries’ marking is understandable, but she calls for more effort to establish direct contact channels between NATO and Russia.

Without that, the risk of misunderstandings is great, she emphasises.

“It is problematic that there is apparently little attention paid to establishing direct contact channels to avoid ending up in a direct conflict. As close as the parties are now, misunderstandings can easily arise.”

At the same time, she does not rule out that Trump’s speech could lead to the EU countries getting “a more acute situational understanding of how dangerous this can be”, and that they and NATO chief Mark Rutte will do more to establish direct points of contact with Russia.

Used As Propaganda#

When asked how she thinks Russia interprets Trump’s speech, she emphasises that this is something we do not know.

But she is absolutely certain that NATO’s talk of more deterrence measures is being used as propaganda and evidence that NATO has offensive intentions towards Russia.

“They are using it in what is almost their conspiracy theory that NATO is actually looking to surround and defeat Russia. But whether they are actually interested in this escalating into a much more dangerous situation, we do not know. And, therefore, one should try to establish direct diplomatic contact outside the public eye,” says Julie Wilhelmsen.

Source: Forsvarets forum (in Norwegian)