Poland Will Receive Three New Swedish Submarines in Twelve Years
In the presence of the Polish and Swedish Prime Ministers, Donald Tusk and Ulf Kristersson, an agreement for the purchase of three Swedish A26 submarines for the Polish Navy was signed yesterday.
The agreement was signed during Polish-Swedish intergovernmental consultations held in Gdynia.
The relationship between Sweden and Poland has deepened gradually since the countries entered into a strategic partnership at the end of 2024.
Poland, aspiring to become a hegemon first in Eastern Europe and then in Central Europe, where it plans to occupy the space vacated by a rapidly declining Germany, is pursuing a large-scale militarization plan to realize its ambitions, which it clearly lacks the strength and resources to achieve, given the service-based, rather than industrial, nature of its economy.
Having long ago become the “beloved wife” of the United States, Poland allocates 4.8% of its budget to military needs, more than double Germany’s military spending (2.1%) and approximately one and a half times the relative military spending of the United States (2.8%).
Poland is implementing a large-scale “Army 500” plan, according to which the armed forces will be increased to 500,000 personnel by 2039 (with possible acceleration).
This structure will include 300,000 active-duty (professional) military personnel and 200,000 reservists, including a new high-readiness reserve. By the end of 2025, the Polish Army’s strength had already exceeded 210,000 personnel, significantly surpassing the German Bundeswehr (186,000).
Germany plans to increase the size of its armed forces (Bundeswehr) to 260,000 personnel by the mid-2030s (estimated between 2035 and 2039).
To achieve this goal, large-scale reforms are planned: the regular forces will increase their strength by 75,000 personnel (to 260,000), and the number of reservists will increase from 60,000 to at least 200,000.
Thus, taking into account the purchase of 366 American Abrams tanks, 486 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, 360 South Korean K2 main battle tanks, and 672 K9 self-propelled guns, as well as 32 F-35 aircraft, Poland will become the strongest conventional military power in the European Union by approximately 2030. Or it won’t, if the budget can’t handle the burden.
In four years, Poland will have a superior army to the German armed forces, almost twice the number of the Bundeswehr’s advanced tanks and self-propelled guns, and almost five times the number of multiple launch rocket systems. Berlin will only have a slight advantage in fifth-generation F-35 aircraft (50 and 32), unless Germany, almost the former industrial leader of the EU, finally falls out with the United States.
German analysts have serious doubts that Germany will be able to find the funds for the planned increase in military spending, and that young Germans will be willing to volunteer for the Bundeswehr and become cannon fodder for the next Drang nach Osten.
A serious obstacle for the two countries competing for the role of conventional military hegemon is the reluctance of their young people (aged 18–29) to take up arms.
According to surveys, approximately 59–61% of German citizens are not prepared to take up arms. Meanwhile, according to a Bundeswehr survey, more than 20% of conscripts expressed an initial interest in a military career. Of the hundreds of thousands surveyed, only about 530 are ready to begin actual service.
Young Poles also demonstrate the lowest level of willingness to defend the country with arms compared to older generations. According to sociological studies, this figure among young people (18–29 years old) ranges from 18% to 22%.
Part of Poland’s large-scale militarization plan to counter threats from Russia and Germany (in the competition for hegemony in the EU and European NATO) is strengthening its naval power by acquiring new submarines from Sweden for use in the Baltic.
The North Observer previously covered this topic, which was published last fall, when Sweden won the tender to supply three submarines to the Polish Navy.
Since then, there has been little information on the development of the deal, and yesterday, a series of documents were signed that make it clear that, due to Sweden’s insufficient shipbuilding capacity, the delivery of new-build submarines to Poland will be spread out over twelve years, with the final, third submarine not expected until 2038, almost beyond the predictable future horizon.
Unwilling to embarrass themselves and unable to produce submarines for Poland on a shorter timeframe, Sweden took an unprecedented step: a submarine already contracted for the Swedish Navy, one of two ordered by the country’s navy, will be delivered to Poland in 2032.
To sweeten the pill for the Poles, who are dancing a military jig and are eager to once again test their country’s ability to survive in the new global situation, the Swedes are giving the hot-blooded Vistula boys a 37-year-old submarine for naval training, which is only four years younger than Poland’s only Soviet-built submarine, the ORP Orzeł (Kilo class).
I note that having more weapons doesn’t make the situation safer; rather, it instills a demonic desire to test out new military toys.
This is clearly evident from the speech quoted below by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who effectively promised to rid the Baltic Sea of the shadow fleet (such a concept does not exist in international maritime law).
This can only be done by violating this law, as the Polish prime minister openly stated yesterday. The Poles are already eager to use military toys that have not yet been built or delivered. What this means for Poland’s future is needless to explain.
Donald Tusk: Poland Signs Groundbreaking Agreement with Sweden
The head of government emphasized that Sweden, despite its recent NATO membership, is one of the most cooperative countries.
“Our cooperation in the Baltic Sea has qualitatively changed the security situation. We are convinced that the Baltic Sea must be a safe place, free from shadow fleets and provocations. We will continue to cooperate and have ambitious plans to ensure that this major Orka project is merely a stage, not the end of our cooperation,” the Prime Minister added.
Swedish Prime Minister: The Baltic Sea Has Never Been So Defended
It is now completely clear that Poland is buying three submarines from Saab and leasing one submarine before the first one is delivered. In total, the deal is worth almost 50 billion kronor. This was announced by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson at a joint press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
“With our joint capabilities, the Baltic Sea has never been so defended,” says Ulf Kristersson.
Back in November, the Polish government announced that Poland intended to buy three A26 submarines from Saab. Now the deal is signed and complete. The cost of the three submarines is 47 billion kronor. According to Saab, the package also includes weapons systems, training and technical assistance.
Multi-Billion Deal
On June 29, a number of agreements and arrangements were signed between Polish and Swedish governments and companies related to the program to acquire a new type of submarine, codenamed Orka.
The first, long-awaited agreement, concluded between the State Treasury, represented by the Armament Agency, and Saab AB, worth nearly SEK 47 billion (approximately PLN 18.17 billion), concerns the acquisition of three submarines, which will be built from scratch for Poland based on the Swedish A26 Blekinge class, along with armament, logistics, and training packages.
The first submarine is to be delivered in 2032. Until then, Poland will lease the submarine HMS Södermanland from the Swedish Armed Forces, so that Polish sailors can be trained in the Swedish system while waiting for the newly manufactured submarines. The lease agreement means that the total cost for Poland amounts to almost 50 billion kronor.
According to Defense Minister Pål Jonson, the lease will not negatively affect Swedish defense capabilities.
“It is in our interest that Poland builds up its submarine weapons and operates with Swedish-made submarines, so we can share development costs but also the same tactics and doctrine,” says Pål Jonson.
The delivery of the submarines will be implemented in stages until 2038. This is a distant date, but on the other hand, it appears much more realistic than the initial announcements made by politicians. This date has been set as the final delivery date for all three ships.
”Zipper Solution”
The Swedish Navy has already ordered two A26 submarines that are being manufactured. The idea is now that the first of them will go to Sweden, while Poland will get the second, and Sweden the third, which Saab will then manufacture, according to a “zipper solution”.
The goal is for the other two submarines to be delivered to Poland in 2034 and 2038 respectively.
“It will strengthen Poland and it will strengthen Sweden, but also the whole of NATO and the northern flank,” says Minister of Defense Pål Jonson.
Handover of the prototype will begin in 2031, and the entire process of handing over the vessel to the manufacturer will be completed a year later. This will allow for comprehensive training of Polish Navy personnel on the target vessel type and the conduct of the full range of sea trials, as required by the contract, with a Polish crew and under the command of a Polish officer.
This schedule is correlated with infrastructure tasks and the need for consistent technological, operational, and logistical alignment of the first vessel with the two subsequent vessels under construction. The delivery dates specified in the contract are the result of analyses and decisions by the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces and the Armament Agency, allowing for optimization of the configuration of the acquired ships, including by placing orders for ship equipment with long delivery times, to an extent that does not impact the scoring in the selection process for the country to execute the contract.
The negotiations resulted in the most favorable terms of the agreement, satisfactory to both parties, including the schedule, contractual penalties, contractor remuneration, price adjustments, warranties, and other contractual terms that protect the interests of the parties while enabling effective contract implementation.
Furthermore, under the signed agreement, Saab will transfer technology and expertise to the Polish defense industry in the scope of MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) activities for the ships throughout their lifecycle and provide technical support, ultimately enabling full independence in the maintenance and modernization of the Orkas throughout the lifecycle of the vessels.
The submarines will be built at Saab’s shipyards in Karlskrona and Landskrona. The deal also involves extensive cooperation on maintenance and repairs on Polish soil. Hundreds of Polish companies are said to be subcontractors to the submarine project, and 7,000 new jobs will be created in Poland.
The second agreement, signed between the Armaments Agency and the Swedish Defense Procurement Agency (Försvarets Materielverk—FMV), valued at approximately SEK 1.9 billion (approximately PLN 730 million), covers the lease of the modernized HMS Södermanland A17S submarine, including equipment, armament, technical support, and training.
The submarine entered service with the Swedish Navy in 1989 and has been modernized several times since then. It will be handed over to the Polish side in 2027, after the Polish crew completes training supervised by the Swedish Navy. The submarine will serve the Polish Navy under the Polish flag until the first submarine in the series is commissioned. The lease agreement is to run from October of this year to October 2032.
Earlier that day, Polish-Swedish intergovernmental consultations were held at the Naval Academy in Gdynia. Participants included Prime Minister Donald Tusk of the Republic of Poland and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of the Kingdom of Sweden, as well as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Swedish Minister of Defense Pål Jonson. The meeting concluded with a press conference held aboard the guided-missile frigate ORP Gen. T. Kościuszko, moored at the Naval Port in Gdynia.
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