View towards Old town from Emajõe skyscraper rooftop in Tartu, Estonia. Source: Wikimedia Commons, A. Savin, Free Art License

The Estonian Ministry of Justice and Digital Affairs has sent a draft prison lease agreement between Estonia and Sweden to the government for approval, which, upon entry into force, would send 600 Swedish prisoners to Tartu Prison. According to the ministry, the agreement would ensure an increase in the level of security in Southern Estonia, the employment and skills development of Estonian prison officers, and in addition, Sweden would pay Estonia €8,500 per month for each prisoner, which will amount to €61.2 million per year, or 0.34 per cent of the country’s budget revenue in 2025.

In 2000, there were approximately 4,700 prisoners in Estonian prisons. At the end of last year, there were 3,278 prison places, but 1,443, or nearly 44 per cent of them, were vacant.

The population of Estonia in 2025 was 1,369,995, of which 1,835, or 0.13 per cent, were in prison. The ratio of free to prison population in Sweden is approximately 0.07 per cent (10,591,058 and approximately 8,000). Thus, Estonia’s prisons hold almost twice as many prisoners relative to their population as Sweden.

The agreement was signed in Stockholm on June 18 and is concluded for five years. Unless either party wishes otherwise, the agreement will be extended for another three years upon the expiration of this term.

Before the agreement can be put into practice, it must be approved by the parliaments of both countries. The government will therefore submit the agreement to the Riksdag for ratification, together with a bill with proposed constitutional amendments that will now be prepared. The goal is for the first inmates to be in place in Estonia during the summer of 2026.

The agreement and the bill are planned to be submitted to the Swedish Parliament in the spring of 2026. Approval requires a qualified majority in the Parliament. The legislation is planned to enter into force on 1 July 2026.

The Swedish Prison and Probation Service is undergoing a historically large expansion as a result of a change in criminal policy. The impact on the agency is already significant, but will increase significantly. The Swedish Prison and Probation Service plans to have 29,000 places in prisons and detention centers by 2034, which means almost tripling the number of places compared to today. Probation and transport operations are also being expanded significantly.

The Estonian government lied to its people that the prison in Tartu, once the intellectual capital of Estonia, would only accept harmless criminals. According to the Swedish side, Estonia would house, among others, men over 18, murderers and rapists. For Swedish criminals, the state plans to use the S-building of Tartu Prison, where there are approximately 350 prison places in 175 cells, and then the E-building, where there are 631 places in 318 cells.

Not all political forces in Estonia are happy about the unexpected source of budget revenue.

Estonia and Sweden began negotiations based on the important interests of both countries. Sweden’s interest is to resolve the overcrowding of its prisons, in Estonia’s case, to resolve the issue of an empty special-purpose building that is costly to taxpayers, and to ensure the employment of prison officers and the further development of their professional skills.

The ministry believes that Estonia has a security obligation to maintain the capacity and readiness of prisons in crisis situations, and the agreement between Estonia and Sweden will help the prison service to fulfill these obligations at a more professional level.

Currently, 600 of the 933 places in Tartu Prison are empty.

“As a result of very constructive negotiations, we reached a draft agreement (in Estonian) that will ensure 400 jobs in Tartu and preserve prison buildings that are important for Estonia’s internal security,” said Minister of Justice and Digital Affairs Liisa-Ly Pakosta.

“The Estonian prison system is world-class, we use highly effective digital services at a high level - but the more we use digital opportunities, the higher the requirements for prison employees. Keeping these people, true professionals, in public service and ensuring the security of the country is both our duty and our joy,” said Pakosta.

The aim of the agreement is to ensure internal security capacity in a situation where the number of Estonia’s own prisoners has decreased significantly in recent years.

The agreement gives Sweden the opportunity to place up to 600 low-risk prisoners in Tartu Prison. All maintenance costs related to foreign prisoners will be covered by Sweden, so there will be no additional burden on the Estonian taxpayer, explained Pakosta.