US–Iran Agreement: Now "Norge AS" Earns Less
The Strait of Hormuz will be opened, and “the oil will flow freely,” according to the US. But is the energy crisis over?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to the biggest energy crisis the world has ever seen, said IEA chief Fatih Birol in April.
The strait has been blocked since February—and with it around 20 percent of the world’s oil and energy trade was strangled, which has affected wallets all over the world.
But now the worst may be over, if we believe the letter of intent between the US and Iran.
The agreement involves, among other things, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the removal of a number of trade sanctions against Iran.
On Thursday morning, three Saudi oil tankers sailed through the strait, carrying 6 million barrels of crude oil.
Believes the Trend Has Reversed
“The first thing that will happen now is that gasoline and diesel prices will go down.”
That’s what Thina Saltvedt tells NRK.
She is chief analyst for sustainable finance at Nordea, and believes the newly signed agreement could be good news for the Norwegian consumer.
While Norwegian oil and gas companies have profited greatly from the conflict in the Middle East, fuel prices have skyrocketed.
But now this could turn around, says the chief analyst.
“Norway as a country and the companies that produce oil and gas have profited a lot from the conflict. At the same time, the population has had increased costs through fuel and transport,” says Saltvedt and continues:
“Now it’s the opposite. Now “Norge AS” earns less, while the man in the street will have his costs reduced.”
Rejects Crisis Label
Bjarne Schieldrop, head of analysis for oil at SEB, paints a different picture of the situation.
""Norge AS” and the Norwegian population are only getting better and better the more the energy crisis continues,” he notes.
The oil analyst points out that the spring’s sky-high oil prices have fattened the Oil Fund, while the Norwegian krone has strengthened.
“The Norwegian state would perhaps have liked the oil crisis to have lasted a little longer, so that the Oil Fund could have become even fatter and the Norwegian krone even stronger,” he adds.
However, Schieldrop disagrees with the IEA chief, who in April labeled this the biggest energy crisis we have ever seen.
“Is what he says true? In what way do you describe it as the worst crisis?” asks the analyst.
He admits that the actual loss of production may have been historically large when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, but believes that the IEA chief is ignoring how relatively limited the price increase has been.
“The world had high global oil inventories ahead of the war. Combined with flexible refineries, efficient financial markets and various “leaks” from the Persian Gulf, this has limited the problems significantly,” says Schieldrop and adds:
“In terms of price, this has not been a significant crisis.”
To put the price level during the much-discussed crisis in perspective, the analyst points to long-term historical trends.
Currently, the market is pricing the average price for 2026 at just $85 a barrel, Schieldrop points out.
“The average oil price in 2022 was $100, and so is the inflation-adjusted price for the last 20 years. So that this year’s average cost should be a huge crisis is not the case:
“The world has done very well both in terms of price and with regard to the supply of oil in general. But had the war persisted, this could have become a catastrophic energy crisis,” he concludes.
Trump Wants to “Let the Oil Flow”
“Ships of the world, start the engines. Let the oil flow!” wrote US President Donald Trump on Truth Social on Monday night, after confirming that an Iran deal was in the works.
Among other things, the agreement forces the US to lift oil sanctions against Iran immediately.
“This means that we will have more oil available than there was before. This could eventually mean that we can get lower prices,” explains Thina Saltvedt.
She points out that the effect on the wallet will happen gradually.
“First, it takes time before shipping traffic starts to move, and then the oil producers have to ramp up their production. And that could take several weeks,” explains the chief analyst.
But according to Schieldrop, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz will not have a noticeable positive effect on Norwegians’ wallets—on the contrary:
“Maybe the flight will be cheaper, but then the krone will be weaker instead. Then it will be a little more expensive to go to a restaurant and stay in a hotel abroad this summer,” he says.
Source: NRK (in Norwegian)