Reflections of Greenland. Source: Christine Zenino, Wikimedia Commons, CC-BY-2.0.
Recent events in Venezuela have revived the topic of a possible U.S. takeover of Greenland, a Danish possession and autonomous part of the Danish kingdom.
Trump’s revived 19th-century American imperialism, and Big Stick diplomacy which disdains international law and prioritizes its own interests secured by brute military force, appears to have set as its goal the return of full-fledged American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, which includes the world’s largest island.
In March 2025, a Danish researcher Hans Niels was the first to propose the general outlines of a scenario for the establishing control over Greenland to the U.S..
Events in Venezuela demonstrate that the proposed scenario does not involve a direct military takeover of the island, bypassing the three preliminary stages of preparation for Greenland’s takeover mentioned by the researcher. When your opponent has a Colt in his hand, he doesn’t have to resort to lengthy procedures or comply with legal regulations.
Given Denmark’s negligible military potential and the Kingdom’s obvious inability to defend its vast Arctic holdings, after the loss of Greenland the country will become a political pygmy within the European Union, whose rapid collapse after the loss of Greenland is more than likely.
The author’s hopes for PESCO to help maintaining control over Greenland, in light of events in Venezuela, appear completely groundless.
Noble Words Hide A Desire For Dominance
In the Danish referendum in 2022, Denmark joined the EU’s defense cooperation, PESCO, which changed the U.S. situation regarding Greenland. Since Denmark is now part of PESCO, it will be more difficult for the U.S. to keep PESCO out of Greenland as long as Greenland is part of the Danish Realm.
Only by establishing full control over Greenland can the United States, in the future, alone, control and dominate Greenland, militarily and economically.
The United States has a long history of establishing control over other countries, which provides insight into some of the methods that the United States can use to achieve control over Greenland. An early example is the Monroe Doctrine from 1823. It appeared to be intended to prevent European colonialism in South and Central America, but behind the noble words about freedom it was actually about ensuring American dominance. This has led to many coups d’état and military interventions in the region, such as in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Venezuela, etc.
In Africa, Liberia is the country with the longest and deepest experience with indirect American rule. Outwardly, the country appears as an independent nation, but in reality its economy and defense policy have been indirectly governed and controlled from Washington. Liberia’s history partly inspired the theoretical concept of neocolonialism that developed in Africa around the 1960s.
In Asia, the American wars in Cambodia, China, Korea, Laos, and Vietnam are examples of how the United States responds in attempts to impose American dominance.
Manuals For Greenland’S Takeover
The United States has many methods for establishing control over Greenland, and there are official manuals on how to do this. Among these are the U.S. Army Field Manual on “Psychological Operations, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures” and the “Manual for Unconventional Warfare” as well as a number of reports prepared by the RAND Corporation.
Greenland’S Takeover Three Known Stages
Based on historical experience and relevant literature, the strategy in Greenland can be analyzed down to four phases, the first three of which are relatively predictable. First, Greenland must be isolated. Dissension is created between Denmark and Greenland, which strengthens Greenlandic independence forces. At the same time, the United States is presented as a better partner for Greenland.
The next step is to secure a referendum on independence, when public opinion is shaped in such a way that secession from the Commonwealth is highly likely.
In the third phase, the U.S. demonstrates international support for the recognition of the Greenlandic state. Other powers are kept at a distance, and the U.S. offers military support, economic packages and financial loans for development projects. A key factor is that the U.S. does not provide military services without conditions, and these will typically involve long-term U.S. demands for influence.
Establishing Full Control Over Greenland
In the fourth phase, the U.S. will establish full control over Greenland, which can develop in different directions. Historically, the U.S. has used different methods, but a central element is debt accumulation, as seen in Africa, Asia and South America.
A likely scenario could be that the U.S. waits for Greenland to be unable to handle its national debt. This would provide an opportunity to implement some form of economic structural adjustment programs with extensive liberalization and privatization. American private equity funds and conglomerates can thereby buy up Greenland’s infrastructure such as ports, roads, hospitals, schools, airports and land.
This will dismantle the welfare state and weaken the Greenlandic population. The introduction of user fees for education and health could lead to increased poverty and build a class system with a small, wealthy elite who are rewarded for safeguarding U.S. interests.
During a social and economic crisis, there may be a greater willingness among the population to become affiliated with the U.S.. There are also many models for this, such as the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Marshall Islands or Alaska.
There is no doubt that politicians in Denmark and the EU are aware of the U.S.’s global strategy, and that PESCO is a central factor in the U.S. wanting to have full control over Greenland. It creates flexibility in the EU and good negotiating opportunities for Greenland.
Greenland’s Parliament can consider what benefits Greenland can gain from becoming a member of the EU before a referendum is held on leaving the Commonwealth.
Source: Jyllands-Posten (in Danish)
Read more on the topic:
Independent Expert