What is EU After Davos?#

Many well-known military-political expert has humorously ridiculed the timid landing of tiny military groups from large European Air Force aircraft, the size of which is in no way commensurate with the threat posed by the US to Danish possessions in the Western Hemisphere.

Let’s not follow their example and try to imagine the possible subsequent actions of NATO’s European members, mostly France, in Greenland, with the exception of the most pro-American ones, such as the three tiny Baltic “tigers,” whose opinions no one cares about, Poland, “a greedy hyena of Europe,” (W. Churchill) which holds the title of the most pro-American and at the same time the most Russophobic country in Eastern Europe, and Hungary, which is closely ideologically linked to the United States, perhaps only until the April elections this year.

The Davos meeting effectively served as a funeral ceremony for the departed old world order, in which the collective West dictated its will to the rest of the world for the past 500 years. Canadian Prime Minister Carney delivered a heartfelt speech at the West’s coffin, inadvertently outlining the contours of a new, emerging world order, in which the United States, China, and Russia will play a leading role. One is tempted to say: Amen!

But where is the place of a united Europe in the new, emerging world order? From the very beginning, the European Union has lacked the most important thing: a clear purpose for its existence, a strategy for achieving it, and correct and effective methods, techniques, and approaches. A high standard of living for all citizens of this pseudo-federation cannot be a goal, nor can the formation of a pan-European identity. EU: miserable existence can only drag on, which is what Europe has been doing since 2008, when its economic model finally collapsed.

Disunity, intractable contradictions between groups of countries (for example, North-South, West-East) and individual countries, under the incompetent political leadership of the European Union (They are blind guides of the blind: Matthew, 15:14), will most likely lead to its disintegration and the formation of regional entities, given the absence of geopolitically powerful states in Europe. Europe would do well to remain united, but it is unlikely to succeed.

Greenland has suddenly become a test case for European unity, and judging by current events, the EU is loosing the game. But perhaps a miracle will happen? And France, with its nuclear potential, will be able to challenge the global hegemon, preventing Trump from duct-taping at least North America, Canada, and Greenland, not forgetting its shared destiny with Quebec, with its nearly 8 million French-speaking citizens?

The only argument against a big Colt is an equally big Colt. And France has one: four strategic attack submarines (SSBNs) with 64 ICBMs and approximately 300 warheads of 100-150 kilotons each. This is more than enough to destroy the United States in one unexpected blow. In reality, these nuclear capabilities will be sufficient for nuclear deterrence in the spirit of de Gaulle’s “All-Azimuth Defense.”

Possessing nuclear weapons is an essential quality of a modern great power, which is what the European Union is ostensibly aiming to become over time. After all, boxers of the same weight compete in the ring, and a chance meeting between a heavyweight and a lightweight boxer always leads to a sad end. France has already offered nuclear guarantees to Europe against the imaginary threat posed by Russia in the event of the US withdrawal from NATO. Now it can do the same against the real threat posed by the US to Europe. All it needs to do is change the target coordinates on the nuclear missiles.

The UK only has a rusty Colt, leased from the US: American-made Trident II missiles deployed on old and technically problematic SSBNs of its own making. The British cannot use these weapons without the consent of the United States.

In January-February of this year, events in Greenland will reveal whether France has the balls of steel and the political will to use them. From the text below, it is clear that the former great power has a military force well trained for operations in the Arctic. Is there a determination and a clear goal for possible active actions far from national territory? And how will inaction or action in Greenland impact the fate of the French Guiana, country’s Caribbean possessions and everywhere in the world?

It will be a breathtaking spectacle, one that will require a lot of popcorn to watch. And don’t forget to fasten your seat belts.

A Long-Term Military Exercise#

Denmark has not provided any information on the number of European soldiers sent there, as no end date has yet been set for the Arctic Endurance mission, hastily launched by the Scandinavian kingdom. “We plan to strengthen our presence and our exercises throughout this year,” explained Major General Soren Andersen, commander of the Arktisk Kommando, in an interview with Le Monde on Saturday, January 17, aboard the Royal Danish Navy patrol boat HDMS Knud-Rasmussen. “We will continue the mission for a year, maybe two, with the cooperation of foreign soldiers. We are trying to establish a troop deployment schedule for Greenland in 2026 and the following year, so yes, it is a long-term mission.”

The French Military Contingent in Greenland Will Be Increased#

The expansionist aims of the US president and his threats to increase tariffs against the eight European countries opposing him have infuriated the Élysée Palace. Emmanuel Macron now plans to send a detachment of at least 200 mountain troops to defend Greenlanders.

To confront Trump, the French head of state donned his helmet and convened an extraordinary Defense Council on January 19. According to information from Le Canard enchaîné, the President has decided to send a well-bundled force of at least 200 mountain troops to the ice floes.

The operation, dubbed Arctic Endurance, launched independently by Denmark outside the NATO framework, officially aims to train troops in extreme polar conditions. But above all, it sends a clear signal to Washington: Europe will not let any challenge to Danish sovereignty go unchallenged.

The Ambassador for Polar and Ocean Affairs, Olivier Poivre d’Arvor, confirmed on France Info that this was “a reconnaissance mission to assess the needs and equipment we will send for the exercise.” Emmanuel Macron, for his part, officially announced the decision on X during the night of January 14-15: “At Denmark’s request, I have decided that France will participate in the joint exercises organized by Denmark in Greenland, Operation Arctic Endurance. The first French military personnel are already en route. Others will follow.”

Experienced Troops for Polar Cold#

France is drawing on its most experienced units for this type of environment. Of the approximately 8,000 French soldiers trained in extreme cold warfare, the majority, around 6,500, belong to the 27th Mountain Infantry Brigade, based in Varces (Isère), famous for its mountain infantry. The remainder are primarily distributed among the special forces of the three branches of the armed forces. The army also has the High Mountain Military Group (GMHM) in Chamonix, experts in extreme operations at altitude and in polar cold, as detailed by La Tribune on Sunday.

This expertise is not new. In 2022, the French army adopted a dedicated “extreme cold” doctrine, placing it among the few Western armies on par with the Norwegians and Swedes, considered global leaders. Colonel Gaëtan Dubois, commander of the High Mountain Military School (the oldest in the world), emphasized to our colleagues that “France’s operational capabilities to operate in polar conditions are recognized internationally.”

This land-based expertise is complemented by polar missions conducted by the Navy and Air Force: the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle crossed the Arctic Circle in 2010, while the A400M is completing its qualification on rudimentary, icy, and snowy runways. Tests were conducted in Greenland itself last March, according to Lieutenant Colonel François-Xavier, an A400M pilot at the Military Air Expertise Center.

Gradual Reinforcement and Multiple Support Sources#

The initial French detachment, consisting of about fifteen, then likely thirty, high-altitude and extreme cold specialists, will be reinforced “in the coming days” with land, air, and sea assets, both within and around Greenland. On Saturday, January 17, Danish F-35 fighter jets on an operational mission already received support from French tanker aircraft.

Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom are also sending limited forces. A source within the French armed forces summarized the stakes for a journalist from La Tribune on Sunday: “France is sending a message of strategic solidarity towards Greenland and Denmark, which aims to complicate Donald Trump’s decisions.”

Greenland, just a 4.5-hour flight from the Istres airbase where Emmanuel Macron delivered his New Year’s address to the armed forces on January 15, remains at the heart of a “fundamental disagreement” between Copenhagen and Washington, as acknowledged by Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and his Greenlandic counterpart, Vivian Motzfeldt, after their meeting at the White House.

French Troops Are Stationed at a Former American Military Base#

This Sunday, Major General Søren Andersen, head of Arctic Command, spoke in an interview with the Greenlandic television channel KNR.

He indicated that the French special forces who have arrived in Greenland will begin their training in Kangerlussuaq, a town on the west coast north of Nuuk, which is home to a former US military base. The town also has an international airport where a French Air Force aircraft has landed.

Troops Deployed in Greenland Are Underestimated#

Twelve French soldiers in Greenland. Forty Europeans… For several days now, many commentators have been ridiculing the Arctic Endurance military exercise, seeing it as an improvised and ludicrous reaction to Donald Trump’s recent statements and the failure of the high-level meeting in Washington on Wednesday, January 14, where the United States, Denmark, and Greenland acknowledged their “fundamental disagreement” over the purchase or annexation of the island.

On the American side, the verbal, diplomatic, informational, and economic escalation is unprecedented. In thirteen months, there have been 12 threats of illegal acquisition or annexation by force, offensive intelligence operations, political interference, the promotion of secessionist figures and rhetoric, and threats of coercion against allies.

So, facing them, 15 men seems insignificant… But this interpretation is flawed, because the value of a detachment in a polar theater is not measured by its size. A small theater liaison and reconnaissance team (ELRT) allows for something rare: building a library of operational frictions to develop a realistic order of battle and calibrate future large-scale exercises, or even larger ones.

This milestone, however modest, is part of a strategy of in-depth preparation: learning today with a few dozen specialists so as not to improvise tomorrow with 500 to 2,000 soldiers.

Political Signal#

Thus, the Danish exercise in which France and nine other countries are participating as part of the Arctic Endurance mission is not a mere political gesture; it is simultaneously the on-site production of a political signal, the refinement of a strategy, a gain in tactical knowledge, and an affirmation that the defense of Greenland is an international issue. The objective is to avoid the asymmetrical confrontation between Denmark and the United States that the Trump administration is seeking.

”If Escalation Is Necessary, It Will Happen”#

“If escalation is necessary, it will happen,” announced Economy Minister Roland Lescure to the senators. “But in the meantime, let’s do everything we can to, I was going to say, ease the pressure and forcefully demonstrate that Europe’s territorial integrity is not negotiable.”

Source:

• Le Monde (in French)
• Le Monde (in French)
• Le Canard enchaîné (in French)
• Le Point (in French)
• Lignes de Defense (in French)