Arms deals are politics. This is especially true for weapons systems where the deal is a life-cycle service that lasts years or even decades. What happens if the interests of the buyer and seller diverge?
For companies, money is just money, but when it comes to questions of war and peace, other factors also weigh heavily in the scales of states. Therefore, decision-makers are required to be particularly far-sighted.
The agreement signed by Finland in November 2023 to acquire David’s Sling system from the Israeli Rafael Group is a typical life-cycle service.
The political side and assessment of the arms deal have remained very unclear.
Rafael was not the only one to offer the high-range air defence system Finland needed, but the David’s Sling won the tender. It can be assumed that its technical characteristics were appropriate for the price. But the political side of the arms deal and its assessment have remained very unclear.
Even before the Gaza war began, it was known that Israel and Finland represent completely opposite approaches to the international rules-based system. It is crucial for Finland that borders are not moved by war.
No matter what happens with the Gaza ceasefire, the occupation of Palestine remains unresolved. And it will not be resolved without external pressure on Israel. In this situation, the goals of Finland and Israel are and will be in conflict.
Finland supports the two-state model because a rules-based world order, human rights and the right of peoples to self-determination are important for a small state. Israel opposes the two-state model because its current and presumably future governments do not want to give up the territories it captured in the 1967 war.
The Gaza war has shown that the Palestinian issue must be resolved. There has been a genuine movement and a broad international consensus on this for a long time. Resolving the issue will require putting pressure on Israel, and there is a growing readiness to do so. The European Commission proposed sanctions in September. Slovenia banned all arms trade with Israel in August. Spain did the same in September.
It is possible that the ceasefire in Gaza will temporarily reduce the pressure on Israel. However, the ceasefire is the beginning, not the end, of the process. The end of Israel’s military occupation, which the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has deemed illegal, not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, has yet to be implemented. It is to be expected that international pressure on Israel will continue to increase.
Could a situation arise in which Israel blackmails us by continuing to supply arms?
The situation will be reflected in Finland, and it would be necessary to prepare for it in advance. How will Finland act if the International Court of Justice finds Israel guilty of genocide in Gaza? How will Finland act if Israel continues to oppose ending the illegal occupation and the independence of the Palestinian state? How will Finland act if more and more EU countries impose sanctions on Israel?
And—could a situation arise in which Israel blackmails us, or is feared to blackmail us, into behaving in the way it wants by continuing arms deliveries.
It is also good to note that Israel has not agreed to send weapons to Ukraine. Not even those received from the United States. Coordinating the situation in Syria together with Russia is too important for Israel.
We need to be sure that there is also a plan B for “David’s Sling”.
In the current world situation, Finland needs a high level of air defence capability. However, it can also be obtained from elsewhere. The question is price and schedule.
Military scientist Ilmari Käihkö highlighted the lack of thorough discussion in the recent anti-personnel mine decision. A similar problem plagues cooperation with Israel.
At the very least, you need to be sure that there is a plan B for David’s Sling. Preferably, of course, one that has been prepared for several years ago. If not, it’s better to prepare today than to find yourself in trouble tomorrow.
Source: Yle (in Finnish)